The Yankees swept the twin bill with matching 5-3 victories. He dingered for the third game in a row and for the second time in this doubleheader against Cleveland, launching one off Scranton-born southpaw Joe Shaute for No. Maris needed that circuit clout to stay ahead of Babe Ruth’s pace because the Bambino just kept clubbing bombs left and right in September 1927. That broke the dam for the Yankees, who eventually won by a score of 8-0 with four more long balls (two from catcher Johnny Blanchard) and a shutout by Whitey Ford.īabe Ruth through Game 140 of 1927: 52 HR Maris broke a scoreless tie against right-hander Tom Cheney (of 21-strikeout fame) with a shot into the bullpen that out in right at field at the original Yankee Stadium. Team Game 140: 9/6 - 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 GIDPĪfter nearly a week without a homer, Maris got back on the board with an assist from the good ol’ “First in war, first in peace, last in the American League” Washington Senators. Roger Maris through Game 140 of 1961: 54 HR Maybe improved offensive support in the lineup will help him see more pitches if his teammates can be more consistent. I have no doubt that Judge will take the trade-off for the blowout win, but he needs the dingers to pick up again. He was held in check for the fourth game in a row, which has put him firmly behind Mark McGwire’s 1998 pace with 1961 Roger Maris on his heels. Team Game 140: 9/10 - 3-for-4, 1 RBI, 1 KĪaron Judge increased his pursuit of a possible late Triple Crown run yesterday, but while he collected a trio of hits, none of them went for extra bases. Now, onto Game 140: Aaron Judge through Game 140 of 2022: 55 HR We’ll be going by Team Game because not every player’s seasons were in sync with the calendar days and everyone didn’t play all of the team’s games, which makes this our universal standard. Even if 2.4% isn’t a huge amount in the abstract, it’s enormous in the context of the sheer difficulty.Welcome back to the Aaron Judge Home Run Record Tracker! We’re taking a daily look at where Aaron Judge’s monster season tracks compared to some of the other historic single-season home run leaders in anticipation of Judge potentially joining their ranks. Of course he didn’t! And the dead ball should only have lowered those odds. If I told you Judge had a 1-in-40 shot of hitting 70 homers before the year, you’d laugh at me. On the other hand, it’s a phenomenal achievement anyway. With the changes in my approach, he gets there in roughly 2.4% of simulations. With this method, I feel more confident in saying that 70 is a long shot, even with the way Judge is playing. To hit six homers in 14 games, Judge both needs to be in good form and likely needs almost all of those 14 games.
AARON JUDGE HOME RUN PACE SERIES
That works out to a 32.4% chance, and if you’re going to witness that home run in person, you’ll want tickets to the last series of the season, naturally enough. Here, for example, are the days when Judge might hit his 66th homer, tying Sammy Sosa on the single-season home run list: I think this model does a better job of accounting for the odds of something remarkable happening. In each simulation, I picked an underlying home run rate talent from a distribution of possible Judge home run rates rather than just using the average. If Judge is going to hit 70 homers, it stands to reason that he’ll probably do it when he’s the best version of himself, on a personal home run tear. There’s no way of knowing in advance which of the two he’ll be, but players don’t produce at a monotonic level forever. Sometimes he might be feeling off, and only have a 6% likelihood. Sometimes, he might be feeling good and briefly have an 8% true-talent likelihood.
In plain English, Aaron Judge might be 7% likely to hit a home run on any given plate appearance over the medium and long run, but that’s not necessarily the case week to week. As Dan noted in his piece on triple crown odds, picking an underlying player talent level from a distribution does a better job of reflecting reality than using a static number. That works pretty well for the center of the probability distribution, but if you’re looking for outliers (like 70 homers), it falls short. Previously, I estimated a true-talent home run rate and used that for every simulation.
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